Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0292
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 16 2023 19:19:10

ACUS11 KWNS 161919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161918=20
TXZ000-162115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 161918Z - 162115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms are possible this afternoon across
parts of eastern TX. Hail will be the primary hazard, but a
conditional tornado threat is also apparent. Trends will be
monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An area of deepening convection across portions of east
TX south of Tornado Watch 68 is noted in latest radar data. Heating
into the low 70s amid mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints is
contributing to moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE values around
1000-1500 J/kg. However, forecast soundings indicate at least weak
capping may persist. In the absence of stronger forcing, and given
weak convergence with the cold front and dryline still far to the
west and north of the region, updraft intensity may be tempered in
the open warm sector.=20

Nevertheless, weak large-scale ascent and favorable effective shear
could support at least transient organized/strong cells capable of
sporadic hail and gusty winds. Regional VWP data indicate enlarged
and favorably curved low-level hodographs, with 0-1 km SRH values
nearing 200 m2/s2. A conditional tornado threat could develop with
cells within this more favorable warm sector environment if
inhibition can be overcome and sustained cells develop. Trends will
be monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon.

...Leitman/Kerr.. 03/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4Dz3V6wzcTqib4VmLUoLOX4PTTxq3PRhLyXeFZ3Xuc1jzKwVyHpHnJkNvu6fra_OwSSToTfKs=
Kpi0GbixRZDKruuNbA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   31949674 32029654 32079616 32059582 31879549 31629534
            31079526 30249529 29899543 29729603 29759691 30599727
            31179728 31669709 31949674=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.