Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0291 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Mar 16 2023 17:53:11 ACUS11 KWNS 161753 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161752=20 TXZ000-OKZ000-161845- Mesoscale Discussion 0291 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Areas affected...portions of the Red River Valley in south-central OK and north TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20 Valid 161752Z - 161845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes is increasing. A WW will likely be issued in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...As a mid-level wave overspreads the region, ongoing convection initiation (currently located along the I-44 corridor in southwestern/central OK) is expected to continue southwestward into portions of north TX. This will occur along a surging cold front and, possibly, ahead of the cold front near a triple point along an eastward surging dryline. All severe hazards will be possible with these storms, including a few tornadoes (perhaps one or two strong), large hail, and damaging wind gusts. A WW will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours. For storms initiating along the cold front, the nature of associated hazards will depend on a delicate balance between expected storm motion and cold front motion. Given a southward-surging cold front, sustained surface-based supercells appear unlikely. However, forecast soundings suggest early/mature supercell bearings around 240/260 degrees, respectively. The cold front also turns sharply toward the northeast through western OK (roughly from LTS/OJA/WDG). These factors may support more sustained surface-based inflow with any supercells forming along that portion of the cold front, suggesting a greater threat for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. Regardless of the surface-based nature of the inflow, any supercell forming near the front will pose a threat for large hail given substantial low-level moisture, steep mid-level lapse rates, and large bulk shear. A conditional threat for a few tornadoes, perhaps one or two strong, and large, damaging hail could materialize if any pre-frontal discrete supercells form. The greatest chance for this to occur should reside along the Red River Valley, downstream of an anticipated triple point around 19-20z near CDS. Some CAM guidance suggests successful convection initiation in this area. Any storms forming here would move eastward into an environment supportive of strong tornadoes and very large hail. Bubbling Cu are currently noted in northwest TX ahead of the cold front. Should successful convection initiation occur here, a local corridor of greater severe-weather potential may materialize this afternoon along the Red River Valley. ...Flournoy/Kerr.. 03/16/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-NcSMnTuBIfIYCJFvn6N5UMsvInetKGEvz1BDlaz-Y4L1kuuHL67vBdC4DsaQthI3MWmKQaXE= 4qdsr2QKPwllVetMqc$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33019856 33639890 34109905 34669876 35039792 35169723 35129606 34719548 33849521 32959562 32659662 32789775 33019856=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .