Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 16 2023 17:01:09

ACUS02 KWNS 161701
SWODY2
SPC AC 161659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

....SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday from southern
Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle. Damaging winds appear
to be the main threat.

....Southeast/Gulf Coast States...
On Friday, a low amplitude shortwave trough will move quickly from
the lower MS and OH Valleys toward the Mid Atlantic, with modest
height falls across the Southeast. A deep surface low will pivot
from the Upper Great Lakes into Canada, with a lengthy cold front
trailing south across the Appalachians and into the central Gulf
Coast by 18Z. Just off the surface, 850 winds will exceed 50 kt as
far south as central MS/AL/GA, but will rapidly veer with the higher
speeds shifting eastward during the day.

Surface temperatures are forecast to remain relatively cool with
dewpoints to 60 F as far north as central MS/AL/GA during the day,
but SBCAPE will be most favorable over far southern parts of those
states, as well as southeast LA and the FL Panhandle.

Storms are likely to be ongoing near the front from southeast TX
into LA and MS at 12Z Friday, and these will persist throughout the
day and shift east. Strong wind fields may result in locally
damaging gusts with activity along the front and before the cool air
undercuts from the northwest. Given the veering low-level flow and
marginal instability, the overall tornado risk is expected to be
low. However, modest SRH may support areas of rotation. Late in the
period, a plume of stronger instability may affect the coastal FL
Panhandle, and conditions for a supercell or two may be maximized
there.

...Jewell.. 03/16/2023

$$

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