Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0290
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 16 2023 15:27:40

ACUS11 KWNS 161527
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161527=20
OKZ000-161730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0290
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Areas affected...portions of southwest into central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 161527Z - 161730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase from
southwest into central OK over the next 1-2 hours. Hail will be the
main hazard with initial thunderstorms into early afternoon. A watch
may be needed in the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Areas of deeper convective cells are developing within
broader area of showers across western OK late this morning ahead of
a fast, southeastward-advancing surface cold front. An elevated
mixed-layer noted in 12z regional RAOBs may result in initial
thunderstorm activity remaining elevated. Also, as the cold front
quickly progresses southeast, initial storms late this morning into
midday may quickly become undercut by the front. Forecast RAP/NAM
soundings indicate some erosion of steeper midlevel lapse rates is
occurring as early showers move across central OK. However, midlevel
lapse rates, coupled with favorable shear profiles and modest
instability, should support a few organized cells/clusters capable
of producing hail.

There is some uncertainty in intensity of initial storms in a narrow
corridor (generally along the I-44/I-40 corridor) in central OK the
next few hours. However, a greater severe threat, including
potential for a few tornadoes, is expected just south and east
across south-central/southeast OK and north TX, where more favorable
surface-based convection is expected by mid-afternoon. While the
tornado threat may be lower across the narrow corridor of mainly
large hail potential across central OK, a watch may be needed in the
next hour or so.

...Leitman/Kerr.. 03/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7H0VVdPaaecYV5IvdfxMKtkBv3zWKJ_me9TVqOcCU9ruMbzhAt7r-tjGPtNlHfTodpqsYXo-4=
tbOLGtx8ZMQeAOprM4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   34899927 35209881 35619802 36179673 36149635 35979611
            35729613 35319624 34949715 34519853 34479930 34659949
            34899927=20


=3D =3D =3D
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