Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Mar 16 2023 05:54:37 ACUS02 KWNS 160554 SWODY2 SPC AC 160552 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts of the central Gulf Coast states. Damaging winds should be the main threat, but a tornado or two also appears possible. ....Central Gulf Coast States... A large-scale upper trough centered over the Upper Midwest and MS Valley will translate slowly eastward on Friday. An embedded, low-amplitude shortwave trough will shift quickly northeastward across the OH Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast through the day. The primary surface low initially centered over the Great Lakes is likewise forecast to develop northeastward into Canada by Friday evening. An attendant cold front will advance quickly east-southeastward across the Southeast through the period. An expansive line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along or just ahead of the cold front Friday morning from parts of LA into MS and northern AL. The intensity of thunderstorms along/near the front will probably tend to remain fairly muted Friday morning owing to weak boundary-layer instability and gradually decreasing low-level convergence along the front. This may lead to updrafts being undercut by the cold front. Still, an isolated threat for strong/gusty winds producing occasional damage should persist as convection spreads east-southeastward during the morning. A moist low-level airmass characterized by upper 50s to mid 60s surface dewpoints should return northward ahead of the front across portions of LA/MS/AL/FL and GA. While mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain generally poor, daytime heating of this moist airmass should encourage weak instability to develop through Friday afternoon. MLCAPE generally ranging from 500-1000 J/kg seems probable, with greater instability forecast closer to the Gulf Coast. A gradual uptick in thunderstorm coverage and intensity should occur Friday afternoon, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting convective organization. A mainly linear mode is expected, with isolated to scattered damaging winds the main threat. Enhanced low-level flow is forecast to slowly weaken/veer through the day as the main forcing for ascent shifts northward and away from the Southeast. Still, sufficient low-level shear should remain to support some threat for a tornado or two with circulations embedded within the line. Thunderstorms should eventually weaken Friday evening/night across GA and north FL as they outpace the low-level moisture return. ...Gleason.. 03/16/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .