Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 16 2023 01:01:34

ACUS01 KWNS 160101
SWODY1
SPC AC 160059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL AZ AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST CA...

....SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms will continue to be possible across parts of
western and central Arizona this evening, with a threat of isolated
severe hail and wind.

....Western/central AZ and vicinity...
Strong thunderstorms are ongoing early this evening from extreme
southeastern CA into southwest/west-central AZ, in association with
a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across the region. Modest
MLCAPE (generally around 500 J/kg) and sufficient deep-layer shear
have supported occasional supercell structures across the eastern
Mojave desert and northern CO River Valley area, and these cells may
progress eastward for a few hours this evening before encountering
less instability across higher elevations. Isolated hail and strong
gusts will remain possible with the strongest storms.

Farther south, warming surface temperatures and cooling midlevel
temperatures (as noted in a series of soundings from Yuma this
afternoon) supported high-based thunderstorm development, with a
severe gust recently noted southeast of Yuma. The high-based storms
have since weakened, but convection emanating out of southwest AZ
will spread toward the Phoenix area this evening, where steepening
midlevel lapse rates will support some destabilization with time,
and the potential for isolated severe hail with the strongest cells.

...Dean.. 03/16/2023

$$

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