Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0289
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 15 2023 22:26:33

ACUS11 KWNS 152226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152223=20
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-160100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0289
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023

Areas affected...southeastern California...southern Nevada...and
west-central Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 152223Z - 160100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms continue to develop across
the southeastern California deserts, and adjacent southern Nevada.=20
Local instances of hail at near severe levels, along with strong
wind gusts in a few locales, can be expected.  However, the isolated
and marginal nature of the risk suggests that WW issuance will not
be required.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that thunderstorms continue to
develop across portions of southeastern California and adjacent
southern Nevada, with the strongest convection ongoing over San
Bernardino County in California.  Latest RAP-based objective
analysis suggests 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE across this
area, which is being aided by steepening mid-level lapse rates in
conjunction with an advancing mid-level trough.  Combined with
moderate mid-level westerlies, the overall environment supports
robust storms, along with weak mid-level updraft rotation.  Indeed,
a couple of storms have exhibited such rotational characteristics,
including a storm moving eastward across San Bernardino County,
roughly along I-40.  A storm split was also indicated earlier with a
storm farther west, all reflective of the aforementioned
environment.

As the mid-level short-wave trough, and associated jet streak,
advance eastward over the next several hours, storms should spread
into/across the Colorado River Valley and eventually, adjacent
portions of western Arizona.  While weaker instability is currently
indicated east of the Colorado Valley, the advance of cooler air
aloft/steeper lapse rates should permit modest additional CAPE
development, likely supporting low-end severe risk into the evening
hours.

At this time, coverage of stronger storms is expected to remain
isolated, and overall risk largely marginal.  As such, WW issuance
is not anticipated at this time.

...Goss/Edwards.. 03/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6x7S1Ils3qonSlymh4ZmP4sajCyMmddPEPu2QARSM73uAJrOow9kyvzjSxRD7jFvU6mjQvzMa=
Dlmi-k6l0OyHUS6AxI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX...

LAT...LON   34591727 35421692 36371725 36501627 36931547 36661468
            34981276 33921253 33471330 33441571 33971707 34591727=20


=3D =3D =3D
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