Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 15 2023 12:46:29

ACUS01 KWNS 151246
SWODY1
SPC AC 151244

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Colorado
River Valley later today, but organized severe storms are not
currently expected.

....Lower Colorado River Valley...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough and related jet streak will
transition east-southeastward across the Southwest Deserts and
International Border vicinity. Relatively widespread rainfall is
occurring across the region this morning. However, various guidance
suggests that modest destabilization may occur by late afternoon,
particularly near the Nevada/California/Arizona border vicinity.
Recent RAP/HRRR runs remain most aggressive in terms of
destabilization later today.

If/where more appreciable cloud breaks do occur, steepening
mid-level lapse rates and moderately strong deep-layer wind profiles
could support some stronger/sustained storms capable of hail and/or
gusty winds. Although questions linger regarding the likelihood of
appreciable destabilization, the potential inclusion of low severe
probabilities will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks.

....Southern Plains...
As upper heights begin to fall and elevated moisture transport
steadily increases, weak elevated thunderstorms will be possible
late tonight/early Thursday across a broad portion of central/north
Texas into eastern Oklahoma.

...Guyer/Broyles.. 03/15/2023

$$

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