Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 15 2023 08:55:59

ACUS48 KWNS 150855
SWOD48
SPC AC 150854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Organized severe thunderstorm potential will probably remain
isolated/marginal at best on Day 4/Saturday as a cold front moves
southeastward across the FL Peninsula. While forecast instability
and shear may conditionally support some severe threat, poor lapse
rates aloft and weak low-level convergence along the front suggest
that a 15% severe area for Saturday is not warranted. Severe
potential should remain low on both Day 5/Sunday and Day 6/Monday,
as surface high pressure remains dominant over much of the
central/eastern CONUS. This should limit rich low-level moisture
over much of the CONUS, with parts of central/south FL the
exception.

Some medium-range guidance indicates that a southern-stream
shortwave trough may move across the Gulf of Mexico and the
Southeast on Day 7/Tuesday. While there are still considerable
differences in the placement and evolution of this feature, some
severe risk may exist across FL if a more amplified trough develops.
Regardless, predictability remains low regarding this feature early
next week.

...Gleason.. 03/15/2023

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