Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 15 2023 08:13:44

FOUS30 KWBC 150813
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Mar 15 2023 - 12Z Thu Mar 16 2023

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS ARIZONA...

....Southern California and the Interior Southwest...
A shortwave trough and its associated surface low will continue to
move across the Intermountain West and Rockies, with a trailing
cold front extending back across Southern California this morning.
 As drier air settles in across Northern to Central California,
moderate to potentially heavy rains may continue across portions
of Southern California as the front, accompanied by a plume of
deep moisture, settles south through the region this morning.  PWs
of 1-1.25in on the leading edge of 30kt low level inflow, along
with favorable mid-to-upper level forcing, and orographics may
contribute to additional heavy rain this morning along the coast,
before decreasing in coverage and intensity by the afternoon as
the axis deeper moisture advection settles farther south.

Farther to the east, southwesterly flow ahead of the advancing
front will focus deeper moisture across Arizona, southern Nevada,
and southern Utah later this morning.  PWs of 0.5in or more (3-4
standard deviations above normal) will spread across the region.=20
This moisture, combined with favorable mid-to-upper level forcing,
is expected to support widespread precipitation, with locally
heavy rain rates possible.  Some of the heaviest amounts are
expected to focus in the upslope regions along and south of the
Mogollon Rim and across portions of northwestern Arizona, where a
Slight Risk was introduced with this update.  In addition to the
heavy rain, melting snow may also contribute to runoff concerns.=20=20


Pereira



Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4AIzV2mxW5pJEs_17GLkFkiG--FHyduAhRSt3NOk_VJN=
5mf2hU12j5aAe4GZMxLYC1u4WO5o5yGULfcghKBDEGNZxSw$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4AIzV2mxW5pJEs_17GLkFkiG--FHyduAhRSt3NOk_VJN=
5mf2hU12j5aAe4GZMxLYC1u4WO5o5yGULfcghKBDAWrglXM$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4AIzV2mxW5pJEs_17GLkFkiG--FHyduAhRSt3NOk_VJN=
5mf2hU12j5aAe4GZMxLYC1u4WO5o5yGULfcghKBDOVWQqFU$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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