Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 15 2023 07:31:34

ACUS03 KWNS 150731
SWODY3
SPC AC 150730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across
parts of the central Gulf Coast states. Damaging winds should be the
main threat, but a tornado or two also appears possible.

....Central Gulf Coast States...
A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning from
parts of coastal TX into LA and southern/central MS along or just
ahead of a cold front. While instability is forecast to remain
fairly weak though the morning hours ahead of this convection,
strong low-level and deep-layer shear should still support updraft
organization. Isolated damaging winds should be the main threat
Friday morning as this activity continues southeastward across the
central Gulf Coast states.

Even though the primary upper trough and forcing for ascent will
remain displaced to the north of this region, the line of
thunderstorms is expected to persist Friday as the cold front
advances east-southeastward. 00Z guidance generally shows better
potential for at least weak destabilization across southeastern LA,
southern MS/AL, and the FL Panhandle by Friday afternoon. As diurnal
heating occurs across these areas, surface dewpoints should also
increase into at least the low to mid 60s just ahead of the front.
Around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, locally stronger, will probably be
enough for the line of convection to intensify/remain surface-based
Friday afternoon. 40+ kt of deep-layer shear will foster continued
convective organization.

Given the linear mode expected, scattered damaging winds should be
the main threat. But, enough low-level shear associated with the
southern fringe of a west-southwesterly low-level jet should be
present to support a risk for a tornado or two with circulations
embedded within the line. The northern extent of appreciable severe
risk into central AL and GA will likely be tempered by weak
instability and poor mid-level lapse rates. But, an isolated threat
for damaging winds may persist into Friday evening across parts of
southwestern GA and the FL Panhandle before the line eventually
weakens.

...Gleason.. 03/15/2023

$$

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