Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Mar 15 2023 05:44:00 ACUS01 KWNS 150543 SWODY1 SPC AC 150542 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across northwest Arizona this afternoon and evening, but the severe-thunderstorm threat appears relatively low at this time. ....Synopsis... A broad upper trough will move across the western CONUS today. Within the larger trough, multiple shortwaves will move eastward, with one notable shortwave and associated mid/upper-level jet maximum forecast to move across the Southwest toward the southern Rockies. A surface low is forecast to gradually deepen across the central High Plains and begin to move eastward late in the period, as a cold front sweeps through parts of the central/northern Plains by Thursday morning. Low-level moisture will begin to return to parts of the southern Plains tonight, and weak elevated thunderstorm development will be possible in this area prior to 12Z Thursday. ....Northwest Arizona and vicinity... In conjunction with the approaching shortwave trough, steepening midlevel lapse rates and modest low-level moisture will support thunderstorm development across parts of the Southwest this afternoon and evening. Storm coverage will likely be maximized across northwest AZ and vicinity, where the most favorable overlap of instability and large-scale ascent is currently expected. Veering wind profiles and moderate deep-layer shear will support some storm organization, but uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of available buoyancy. RAP/HRRR solutions are rather aggressive with MLCAPE locally approaching 1000 J/kg by late afternoon, but this may be somewhat overdone with early-day precipitation and widespread cloudiness expected. Even with weaker buoyancy, a few strong storms capable of small hail and gusty winds will be possible. If observational and guidance trends end up supporting stronger destabilization, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of the region. ...Dean/Wendt.. 03/15/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .