Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Mar 14 2023 19:26:27 ACUS01 KWNS 141926 SWODY1 SPC AC 141925 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely over the conterminous U.S. through tonight. Little change was made to the previous outlook, with a minimal threat of thunderstorms across the CONUS. In the near term, showers from western North TX into southeastern TX may produce sporadic lightning flashes as a shortwave trough dives southeastward across the area, and utilizes moisture near 700 mb. Elsewhere, convergence over far southern FL and continued heating may lead to weak convection near Biscayne Bay, while upslope flow into the Sierra enhances lift with a chance of isolated thunderstorms later today. ...Jewell.. 03/14/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023/ ....Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, the pattern will remain characterized by a progressive, higher-amplitude northern stream pattern and conjoined, but lower-amplitude, southern stream of westerlies. A strong mid/upper-level low -- evident in moisture-channel imagery and morning RAOB data over PA -- will move roughly eastward today. By 00Z, over the Cape Cod vicinity, this feature will become vertically stacked with its occluded low-level counterpart now apparent over southern New England. The deep-layer cyclone then should move away from the northern Atlantic Coast, with any related thunder far out to sea. Convection-supporting lift accompanying the associated/trailing cold front across the Straits of FL to the western Gulf should continue to shift southward and/or gradually weaken through the period. As such, overland thunder potential now appears too minimal to keep in the outlook, except for isolated sea-breeze convective potential over a small part of southeastern FL. A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough -- initially over the eastern TX Panhandle, northwest TX and western OK -- will move southeastward across the Arklatex and lower Mississippi Delta region by the end of the period. In the associated large-scale lift/DCVA and warm-advection plumes, enough low/middle-level moisture exists to support weak elevated buoyancy and isolated thunder potential today, from the upper Red River area to parts of east TX. Farther west, a prominent, but not particularly intense mid/upper-level trough is apparent offshore from central/northern CA. This perturbation is preceded by an expansive precip shield over most of CA from the Sierra westward. Buoyancy is weak and generally confined below ideal icing levels for lightning. However, with large-scale lift/cooling lowering those levels through the day as the trough approaches (and similarly tonight, farther inland across the Great Basin), and at least marginal moisture available, a few episodic bursts or streaks of lightning may occur within outlooked broad areas of potential. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .