Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0288
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Mar 14 2023 17:48:24

ACUS11 KWNS 141748
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141747=20
MEZ000-142045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0288
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 PM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023

Areas affected...much of coastal Maine

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 141747Z - 142045Z

SUMMARY...A band of heavy snow, including a one or two hour period
with rates of 1-2 inches per hour, may spread inland across coastal
Maine around 3-4 PM EDT.  This will coincide with increasing winds
and occasional strong gusts, resulting in blowing and drifting of
snow and a period of sharply reduced visibilities.

DISCUSSION...A period of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric
frontogenesis is ongoing offshore of the northern New England coast.
Model forecast soundings suggest that associated forcing for ascent
is contributing to strengthening lift through 700-500 mb, within
which a saturated layer with temperatures around -15 C is conducive
to large dendritic ice crystal growth.=20=20

Convection with cooling cloud tops is evident along this zone, which
is generally forecast to pivot inland across coastal Maine by
19-20Z, as the center of a deepening surface cyclone migrates
west-northwestward to the east/northeast of the Cape Cod vicinity.=20
Aided by inflow of moist air with precipitable water of .5-.6+
inches, an hour or two with heavy snow rates on the order 1-2 inches
per hour appears possible.  This will also coincide with the inland
development of a 50-70+ kt easterly jet around 850 mb, beneath which
forecast soundings suggest that boundary-layer mixing may be
accompanied by 40-50 kt surface gusts, contributing to at least some
blowing/drifting of snow and sharply reduced visibilities.

As the offshore surface cyclone begins to occlude, and the
frontogenetic forcing weakens, models suggest that the snow rates
will diminish as the band pivots inland through the remainder of the
afternoon.

...Kerr.. 03/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9NwEfl_16t3-ah0rsBf5EqJykR40UuiqHAD1eetQLXa3qnwaeIVeyaW4lRokVb5FNurHKktFD=
6YKF4JDhrpGUVguDO8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   44766692 44206848 43636987 44456946 45116759 45206608
            44946620 44766692=20


=3D =3D =3D
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