Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Mar 14 2023 05:36:24

ACUS02 KWNS 140536
SWODY2
SPC AC 140534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2023

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
The southern portion of a large-scale upper trough over the western
states will move eastward across southern CA, the Great Basin, and
the Southwest on Wednesday. Even though low-level moisture will
remain limited, weak MUCAPE should develop through the day as
mid-level temperatures cool and lapse rates aloft gradually steepen.
Isolated convection capable of producing occasional lightning
flashes may occur as ascent associated with the southern-stream
shortwave trough overspreads these areas. This activity is expected
to generally remain elevated.

Low-level moisture return will occur across the southern Plains
through Wednesday night as the shortwave trough approaches and a
southerly low-level jet strengthens. This moisture will initially be
fairly limited, with a substantial cap also forecast. The potential
for elevated thunderstorms in the low-level warm advection regime
should remain low until perhaps late Wednesday night and early
Thursday morning (after 16/06Z), as the cap gradually erodes. Even
if any thunderstorms form, MUCAPE should remain too weak to support
a threat for severe hail through the end of the Day 2 period.

...Gleason.. 03/14/2023

$$

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