Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0287
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Mar 14 2023 04:54:50

ACUS11 KWNS 140454
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140454=20
MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-141030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0287
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023

Areas affected...Hudson Valley region into parts of southern New
England

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 140454Z - 141030Z

SUMMARY...Heavy wet snow will increase overnight, with 1-2 inch per
hour rates possible, especially at higher elevations.

DISCUSSION...At 0430Z, an intensifying cyclone is evident in WV/IR
imagery well off of the Mid Atlantic coast (near 37N, 71W). A
surface trough extends northwest of this cyclone, with an apparent
mesolow (suggested by radar imagery and surface/ship/buoy
observations) moving north-northeastward along the surface trough
toward western/central Long Island, where the strongest 2-hour
pressure falls are currently noted. Meanwhile, a strong
mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving eastward out of the OH
Valley region toward the Northeast/New England. Increasing
deep-layer ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough
combined with persistent low-level moisture transport will intensify
precipitation rates overnight from the Hudson Valley region into
parts of southern New England.=20

Temperatures remain near/above freezing across the region as of 04Z,
though higher elevations and portions of the Hudson Valley have
turned over to snow. For western MA/northwest CT/southern VT into
adjacent portions of the Hudson Valley, limited near-surface warm
advection along/west of the surface trough will allow precipitation
type to remain as snow overnight, resulting in the potential for 1-2
inch per hour snow rates as precipitation intensifies. Farther east,
stronger low-level warm advection results in some uncertainty
regarding precipitation type at lower elevations, though very heavy
wet snow rates will be possible at higher elevations in the
Worcester Hills and vicinity overnight.

...Dean.. 03/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!604AOricBPBgdgT5_C4o3M1CFuQ0xYGKHDoM41Da9dUd4BKHfz1RrHnevuugfcvMakJfwYvuq=
5NO2_utpAQUhBFthxU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON   41557319 41747399 42187440 42977445 44317383 44317352
            44247333 43957344 43747325 43727290 43717276 43247199
            42917175 42487173 42217185 42057269 41567306 41557319=20


=3D =3D =3D
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