Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 13 2023 17:19:16

ACUS02 KWNS 131719
SWODY2
SPC AC 131717

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday.

....Synopsis...
A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be centered over PA early
Tuesday morning. This cyclone is then forecast to progress
northeastward off the Northeast/New England coast as shortwave
ridging moves from the northern/central Plains eastward through the
Mid/Upper MS Valley into the Lower Great Lakes. Farther west, a
low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move
quickly through the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley and
another shortwave trough will move through northern/central CA into
the Great Basin.

Surface pattern early in the period east of the Rockies will be
dominated by high pressure, with the low-level moisture shunted
south into Deep South TX and the FL Keys. Some isolated
thunderstorms are possible in these areas amid modest ascent
attendant to a weakening front. A few thunderstorms are also
possible during the morning from the TX Panhandle into central TX as
the southern-stream shortwave trough moves through. Limited moisture
should temper thunderstorm coverage.

Thunderstorms are also expected throughout the day across northern
and central CA, where strong forcing for ascent will interact with a
moist and modest buoyant air mass. Overall buoyancy will be meager,
but robust vertical shear could still support a strong storm or two.
However, coverage will likely be limited, precluding any severe
probabilities with this outlook.

...Mosier.. 03/13/2023

$$

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