Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 13 2023 16:28:47

ACUS01 KWNS 131628
SWODY1
SPC AC 131627

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Florida Peninsula this afternoon.

....FL Peninsula...
Satellite imagery shows a destabilizing cumulus field across the
central Peninsula to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms
along a front over the north-central part of the Peninsula.  Very
moist conditions observed both at the surface (lower 70s dewpoints)
and vertically (reference the 12z TBW raob) indicate moderate
buoyancy is present (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE).  With the large-scale
trough displaced to the north and a surface low developing
northeastward away from the NC Outer Banks, veered southwesterly
flow will be maintained.  However, strong 50-kt 500-mb westerly flow
will aid in storm organization in the form of multicells and
supercells with the most vigorous/organized updrafts.  The
relatively high PW environment coupled with a weak capping inversion
suggest scattered storms will develop by early afternoon across
central portions of the Peninsula.  Forecast hodographs show a
veer-back component in the mid levels which would imply somewhat
messy/water-laden multicell/supercell structures.  Isolated damaging
gusts and large hail appear to be the primary hazards with the
stronger storms, but a brief tornado is possible, especially if a
favorable storm-scale driven boundary interaction can occur with a
supercell this afternoon.  This activity will gradually push
southward during the afternoon into the evening into parts of the
southern peninsula.

....CA central valley...
Convective showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon as weak buoyancy develops.  Storm depth will likely be
shallow due in part to mid level temperatures slightly warmer than
previous days and thereby mitigate the risk for small hail.

...Smith/Supine.. 03/13/2023

$$

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