Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0286
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 13 2023 15:11:16

ACUS11 KWNS 131511
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131510=20
FLZ000-131745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0286
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023

Areas affected...Central FL peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 131510Z - 131745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe storms with some marginally severe hail, a
few damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible across
the central Florida peninsula though early afternoon. A watch is not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms with some transient supercell
structures were observed this morning across the central Florida
peninsula. Per mesoanalysis and the KTBW 12Z RAOB, these storms are
in an environment characterized by moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE), fairly steep near-surface lapse rates, and effective bulk
shear of approximately 40-50 kts. Hodographs have some curvature in
the low levels, particularly with northward extent, but low-level
shear is relatively weak and should continue to weaken with time,
given veering surface winds and vertical mixing.

The stronger updrafts will pose a threat for marginally severe hail.
While there is some risk for a tornado, the overall tornado threat
is limited by the weak low-level shear. The bands of convection are
parallel to the flow, so expect some upscale growth into line
segments with some threat for damaging gusts. With time, expect
storms to move eastward offshore into the Atlantic.

...Supinie/Smith.. 03/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4hMp0sxVTBFzWxh34OH142XCPK0z7LCC5GEU4d119HqP0cntxrXThG7QKBwlgi03S241U1moC=
1mm-kkbh6gaK9KiVLo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   28128024 27838008 27317999 26828037 26318114 26228189
            26418218 26738242 27108274 28528305 29078295 29478234
            29788148 29868121 29758091 28128024=20


=3D =3D =3D
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