Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Mar 13 2023 12:37:45 ACUS01 KWNS 131237 SWODY1 SPC AC 131236 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Florida Peninsula today. ....Florida Peninsula... To the south of an upper trough over the Ohio Valley, cyclonically curved westerlies and relatively cool mid-level temperatures will influence the coastal Southeast including Florida through tonight. West-to-east scattered clusters and bands of showers/thunderstorms are ongoing across the north-central Peninsula early this morning in areas near/south of a southward-advancing cold front. A relatively moist air mass with upper 60s/lower 70s F surface dewpoints exists to the south of the front. Scattered cloud cover will allow for ample heating across the central into southern Peninsula, with upwards of 1250-1500 J/kg MLCAPE possible as any lingering boundary layer inhibition quickly erodes through the morning. A gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity should occur by late morning/midday initially across the central Peninsula, with the front and outflow/differential heating resulting in a net southward shift of storms into the southern Peninsula by late afternoon. Aforementioned buoyancy/relatively steep mid-level lapse rates (6.5-7.0 C/km) and strong mid-level westerlies, with 35-40 kt effective shear maximized across the central Peninsula, will support the potential for isolated strong/severe thunderstorms. Multicells will likely be most common, but a few semi-discrete/embedded HP supercells could evolve, particularly across the east-central Peninsula. Localized hail/damaging winds appear to be the primary risks, but the potential for a brief tornado may exist as well. ....California North-Central Valley... Isolated thunderstorms will again be possible, particularly late this afternoon. Even as surface dewpoints hold in the lower 50s F, weaker buoyancy is expected today as compared to the prior two days, as mid-level temperatures will be a bit warmer. While a couple of stronger storms capable of hail could develop late this afternoon, severe probabilities do not currently appear warranted. ...Guyer/Broyles.. 03/13/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .