Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 13 2023 09:02:12

ACUS48 KWNS 130902
SWOD48
SPC AC 130900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Guidance remains in good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave
trough will eject over the southern Plains on Day 4/Thursday. At
least upper 50s to perhaps mid 60s surface dewpoints should return
northward ahead of this upper trough across parts of central/east
TX/OK into the ArkLaTex vicinity. As mid-level temperatures cool and
daytime heating occurs, weak to moderate instability is forecast to
develop by Thursday afternoon along and ahead of a surface dryline.

Ascent attendant to the shortwave trough should encourage robust
convective development along much of the length of the dryline late
Thursday afternoon and evening. Strong deep-layer shear will easily
support organized convection, including the potential for supercells
with a large hail and damaging wind threat. Additional severe
convection may develop Thursday night across portions of east TX
into the ArkLaTex in a strengthening low-level warm advection
regime. Even though low-level moisture should remain somewhat
limited, enough low-level shear should be present to support some
threat for a few tornadoes as well. Confidence in scattered severe
convection occurring has increased enough to introduce a 15% severe
area for Thursday.

An isolated severe threat may persist into Day 5/Friday across parts
of the central Gulf Coast states as the shortwave trough moves
eastward over the lower/mid MS Valley. However, at this time
confidence remains too low in the quality and northward extent of
appreciable low-level moisture return to include a 15% severe area
for Friday. Some threat for strong to severe thunderstorms could
continue into the upcoming weekend across parts of FL and vicinity,
but predictability remains low at this extended time frame.

...Gleason.. 03/13/2023

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