Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 13 2023 01:58:22

AWUS01 KWNH 130158
FFGMPD
CAZ000-130555-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0103
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
957 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

Areas affected...central California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130155Z - 130555Z

Summary...Scattered storms should continue to produce brief, heavy
rainfall at times across central California.  The ongoing flash
flood threat should continue for another couple of hours at least.

Discussion...Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue in the
general vicinity of Fresno and the southern San Joaquin Valley of
California currently.  The storms have benefited from a number of
favorable influences for heavy rainfall, including 1) MUCAPE
values locally exceeding 1000 J/kg at times, 2) sufficient shear
for organization and even occasional supercellular development, 3)
sustained upslope flow for lift along the west side of the Sierra,
and 4) more subtle ascent from mid-level shortwave troughs
traversing the region.  Models/CAMs and observations all suggest
that this activity is mostly diurnally driven, however.  Over
time, nocturnal boundary layer cooling should allow for a
lessening of updraft strength, although this process may take
another 2-4 hours to fully realize and temper the heavy rainfall
threat.  In the meantime, locally heavy rainfall (0.5-1.5 inch/hr
rain rates) will materialize over areas that have experienced
numerous and at times significant impacts from runoff.  The
ongoing heavy rainfall could exacerbate these impacts.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_wKlauIfa8X7hrYkXKzxf7Is-V2A2brKMptVuOuKHlCnQ-7GyyegrIdHLLKGfL3IYQ1Z=
4eI1q2HbXGIBRf_KpZxoMAA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...MTR...STO...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39542133 38382010 37531929 36711890 36221900=20
            36331987 37072099 38672218 39432226=20

=3D =3D =3D
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