Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 13 2023 00:48:40

ACUS01 KWNS 130048
SWODY1
SPC AC 130046

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm intensity will gradually wane this evening across
northern Florida. Until then, a few strong wind gusts, or perhaps
marginally severe hail can be expected.  A few strong/severe storms
remain possible in the San Joaquin Valley.

....01z Update...

Westerly flow continues to deepen across northern FL early this
evening. Southern-most east-west band of convection is settling
south across the northern FL Peninsula and should continue this
trend over the next several hours. Several strong/robust updrafts
were noted along this zone earlier but recent trends suggest overall
intensity should gradually wane, especially with loss of daytime
heating. While organized line segments will linger across this
region, overall severe threat appears to be decreasing across this
region.

Severe threat will also begin to decrease across the central Valley
region of CA. One lone supercell is drifting southeast, just west of
Fresno. Hail has been reported with this storm, and latest MRMS data
suggests marginally severe hail continues. Until the boundary layer
cools across the San Joaquin Valley, some threat for marginally
severe hail will continue with the strongest convection. Much cooler
surface temperatures farther north are yielding lower instability
and updrafts should be decidedly weaker this evening.

...Darrow.. 03/13/2023

$$

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