Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0285
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 12 2023 23:50:10

ACUS11 KWNS 122350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122349=20
CAZ000-130045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0285
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023

Areas affected...portions of the southern Central Valley.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 122349Z - 130045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A strong supercell has developed in the southern Central
Valley. This supercell will pose a primary threat of large hail over
the next 1 to 2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed into the upper 60s beneath
broken cloud cover with dewpoints in the low/mid 50s in the southern
Central Valley. This has resulted in 500 J/kg MLCAPE in a confined
region northwest of Fresno. The KHNX VWP shows 50 knots of westerly
flow at 6km which has provided ample shear for supercell
development. In fact, this supercell has recently exhibited deviant
motion to the right, indicating a strong mesocyclone. Therefore,
this supercell poses a threat for severe hail, and recent radar
analysis from KNHX also supports this with a three body scatter
spike, and dual-pol analysis supporting both significant small hail
and some larger hail stones in the center of the core. Peak heating
is likely occurring now with some surface cooling expected into this
evening. Additional stronger storms could develop within the next
hour, but this threat will likely end after 01Z as the boundary
layer begins to cool. However, the well developed mesocyclone with
the ongoing supercell could allow this storm to persist later into
the evening for an hour or two, even after inhibition sets in.

...Bentley/Hart.. 03/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7pf7qnvOkWB0r9Wyc5qQvEZCZyyHrmXMRGTDsQSH0ts2FyNvHrz1q-BBULkllL17dAptvcrRQ=
8FiX4rQhyq_7cVb1qY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...

LAT...LON   36762053 36952059 37152052 37292024 37061943 36721915
            36281902 36091939 36161986 36522023 36762053=20


=3D =3D =3D
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