Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Mar 12 2023 17:12:38 ACUS02 KWNS 121712 SWODY2 SPC AC 121711 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Florida Peninsula on Monday. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ....Synopsis and Discussion... A deep shortwave trough is forecast to mature as it moves from the Great Lakes region eastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic on Monday. A broad area of enhanced westerly flow aloft will accompany this shortwave, covering much of the eastern CONUS throughout the period. Farther west, shortwave ridging will progress eastward from the northern/central Rockies into the northern/central Plains as another shortwave trough moves through the Pacific Northwest. Additionally, a low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move quickly eastward across the Southwest States. At the surface, a low is expected to be centered off the NC coast early Monday, with a cold front extending southwestward across the northern FL Peninsula. This low is forecast to progress gradually northeastward while the attendant cold front pushes southward across the FL Peninsula. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s/low 80s ahead of the front, with dewpoints the mid 60s. This combination will result modest buoyancy and the potential for thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front. Strong westerly flow aloft will contribute to 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear, supporting the potential for a few more robust/organized updrafts capable of hail and/or damaging gusts. High pressure will cover much of the central and eastern CONUS in the wake of this front, promoting stable conditions. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible from the Four Corners vicinity into the southern High Plains as the previously mentioned southern-stream shortwave trough moves through. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are also possible over the CA Central Valley, where afternoon temperatures in the 60s and dewpoints in the 50s will result in modest buoyancy. ...Mosier.. 03/12/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .