Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0280
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 12 2023 14:19:39

ACUS11 KWNS 121419
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121419=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-121645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0280
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0919 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023

Areas affected...southern MS...southern AL...FL
Panhandle...southwest GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 121419Z - 121645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Gradual intensification of storms is expected through the
late morning and into the midday hours.  The primary threats will be
isolated to widely scattered damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic this morning shows a broken rain shield
with embedded thunderstorms from northern GA west-southwestward into
southern MS.  A few line segments have evolved and are moving
east-southeastward into a slowly destabilizing airmass across the
coastal plain.  Mid morning surface conditions show temperatures in
the lower 70s with near 70 deg F dewpoints over southern MS into
southwest AL/FL Panhandle.  Cooler temperatures (lower-mid 60s) are
located in west-central into parts of southern GA.=20=20

Considerable low to mid-level cloud cover is evident on
visible-satellite imagery across the coastal plain from MS into
southwest GA.  The cloud cover will act to retard stronger
destabilization across the discussion area.  However, speed shear in
the 925-500 mb layer will promote some storm organization mainly in
the form of line segments.  Damaging gusts with the stronger storms
appear to be the primary hazard through midday, although a low risk
for a brief tornado may materialize if storms can become more
organized than currently anticipated.  Will monitor convective
trends over the next few hours for the possibility of a convective
watch.

...Smith/Edwards.. 03/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-4_EL4ebLmmCH3ZWPdb9tctDLBOOqLH7hHeJ2-w-AI8Z3qAb8jKbYuw1X5rA4uSYQcpwA3ONG=
Ws3Qz9LKI4BUNedF5U$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   31408914 31578717 31968596 32668444 32458338 31938307
            31128352 30568407 30518622 30468930 30758958 31408914=20


=3D =3D =3D
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