Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Mar 12 2023 12:55:39 ACUS01 KWNS 121255 SWODY1 SPC AC 121254 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible today across parts of the Southeast. A few strong/severe storms are also possible in the central valley of California. ....Southeast States... Several potentially convectively enhanced low-amplitude disturbances appear to be embedded in the cyclonically curved westerlies to the south of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest. A southeast-moving cold front and, perhaps more so, convective outflows and zones of differential heating will influence intensifying convection within the warm sector by afternoon. Initially, an ongoing small-scale bowing complex could produce isolated severe weather across southern Mississippi this morning, with the potential for this activity to further intensify and/or reinvigorate and become surface-based by afternoon towards southern Alabama/Florida Panhandle. It still seems likely that a mixed storm mode, likely dominated by line segments and multicell clusters, will spread east-southeastward across the Southeast by late afternoon, particularly across southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama, southern Georgia, and north Florida. While linear bands may be most prevalent, strong deep-layer/low-level shear could support a few supercells as abundant buoyancy will be in place prior to convection. Hail, damaging winds, along with a few tornadoes can be expected with this activity. ....California - Central Valley/San Joaquin Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave trough/speed max will spread inland across southern California later this afternoon/evening. Lower 50s F surface dew points are in place across the interior valley, and this moisture should persist given the flow regime. Lesser instability is expected today in the interior valley as compared to yesterday, along with more ridging at the surface. Even so, sufficient instability in the presence of strong mid-level westerlies could support a few supercells potentially capable of hail or even a brief tornado late this afternoon/early evening. ...Guyer/Broyles.. 03/12/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .