Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0279
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 12 2023 12:14:07

ACUS11 KWNS 121214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121213=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-121415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0279
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Louisiana...Southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 121213Z - 121415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage threat may continue over the next
few hours as a line moves into southern Mississippi. The threat is
expected to remain marginal and WW issuance appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from KDGX shows a
semi-organized short line segment near the Mississippi River to the
west-southwest of Jackson, Mississippi. According to water vapor
imagery, the line segment is located near a subtle shortwave trough
that is moving eastward through the lower Mississippi Valley. A
moist and unstable airmass is located immediately to the south of
the line segment, where MLCAPE is estimated in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg
range. In addition, WSR0-88D VWPs and RAP forecast soundings have
0-6 km shear near 50 kts across much of the lower Mississippi
Valley. This could be enough to keep the storms somewhat organized
this morning. Even so, any severe threat should remain isolated and
marginal.

...Broyles/Guyer.. 03/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_uYa_IuF5Z8_7pZfEM6cffN4Wmrdjs0IBsoIHtqtgMbQjmo3dX9jV9GitRayt0oSVsFwRDA2E=
pW5SZKZm-XTABP8roc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30658934 31339148 31749189 32159165 32199094 31728937
            31228885 30658934=20


=3D =3D =3D
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