Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 12 2023 08:56:36

ACUS48 KWNS 120856
SWOD48
SPC AC 120855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

....DISCUSSION...
An upper trough is forecast to continue advancing eastward across
the western states to the Rockies on Day 4/Wednesday, with minimal
severe potential evident across the CONUS. Some low-level moisture
return should occur ahead of this feature from Wednesday into Day
5/Thursday across parts of the southern Plains. A narrow corridor of
weak instability should develop Thursday afternoon along/ahead of a
dryline from portions of central/eastern OK into north-central and
central TX. It appears that pronounced forcing for ascent attendant
to the southern branch of the upper trough will aid in convective
development along the dryline by late Thursday afternoon. With
strong deep-layer shear expected, organized severe thunderstorms
appear possible. However, the fairly limited low-level moisture and
weak instability forecast may tend to keep this severe threat
isolated. At this point, it appears premature to include a 15%
severe area owing to the potential limiting factors.

Medium-range guidance shows generally good agreement that the upper
trough will evolve into a closed upper low from Day 6/Friday into
Day 7/Saturday across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Appreciable
low-level moisture return ahead of a surface cold front will
probably remain confined to parts of the central Gulf Coast states
and FL in this time frame. While an isolated severe threat may
develop across parts of these regions, instability will likely
remain weak. This will probably limit overall severe potential.

...Gleason.. 03/12/2023

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