Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0278
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 12 2023 08:21:07

ACUS11 KWNS 120821
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120820=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-120915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0278
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 AM CDT Sun Mar 12 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Mississippi...Western Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 120820Z - 120915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The wind-damage threat may continue to the southeast of WW
66 as a line of storms moves into eastern Mississippi over the next
couple of hours. The threat is expected to become more isolated, but
weather watch issuance remains possible to the southeast of WW 66.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Jackson shows a
continuous line of storms across northwestern Mississippi, with a
large-scale bowing structure. This line is located along the
northern edge of a moist and unstable airmass with MLCAPE generally
around 500 J/kg according to the RAP. This line is being supported
by a 40 to 50 kt low-level jet, and a subtle shortwave trough
evident on water vapor imagery. As the line moves southeastward, it
will continue to encounter weak instability, with low-level flow
becoming slightly more veered. This may result in a gradual
weakening trend over the next few hours. However, a lingering threat
for isolated wind damage should remain, especially if the line can
remain somewhat organized.

...Broyles/Guyer.. 03/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7s08FDWM222ft5Mj1OEgCNY_ImP97okdlIoDObNBUng2SmPqKwat6mp3AMsw_fL7gNBLip6Kg=
0_n88ChXgdhhKERp2k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   33198842 33348909 33128966 32749004 32389003 32138972
            31638901 31248838 31318791 31588758 32138746 32718771
            33198842=20


=3D =3D =3D
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