Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 12 2023 05:36:24

AWUS01 KWNH 120536
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-121133-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0099
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1235 AM EST Sun Mar 12 2023

Areas affected...southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana,
western/central Mississippi

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120533Z - 121133Z

Summary...An east-southeastward moving mesoscale convective
complex is maturing and moving toward the "Ark-La-Miss" area and
adjacent portions of Mississippi and Louisiana.  As it does so,
the flash flood threat will increase across these areas.

Discussion...Ongoing convection across southwestern/central
Arkansas has grown upscale a bit faster than initially depicted by
most CAMs.  On its current track, the leading edge of the MCS
should reach the Mississippi River near Greenville by
approximately 0630-0730Z.  As it does so, a trailing line of
convection should become favorably oriented to 1) westerly flow
aloft for training and slow southward translation and 2)
west-southwesterly 850mb flow for sustained convergence/updraft
development along its upstream flank.  This system may also reach
the warm sector, which contains 1000-1500 SBCAPE and modest
low-level inhibition that should be breached as a mature cold pool
approaches the airmass.  Areas of 2 inch/hr rainfall rates
(estimated by MRMS) have materialized along the southwestern flank
of this MCS (from near Nashville to Camden), and it appears that
these rainfall rates may also extend southeastward toward the
Arkansas/Louisiana border area and "Ark-La-Miss" over the next few
hours.  FFGs are a bit higher in this area compared to points
north (i.e., around 2-2.5 inches per hour), although the training
nature of the convection may induce excessive runoff especially in
sensitive areas.

Again, models/observations suggest that this MCS should reach the
Mississippi River near Greenville around 0630-0730Z or so, with
it's trailing flank settling toward the Arkansas/Louisiana border
region through the Mississippi Delta by around 0730-0830Z.  An
attendant flash flood threat will exist with this activity.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8HqUH0qVx2W04SXAAsm4IgQuY_5Nq5ztiRK3f0lGev2HS16_dBe3A3wW8AnjOcFXINaK=
zILQRuPnWnpl4NQ6uhwahtk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34359170 34219012 33948893 33348870 32598894=20
            32008990 31769142 31869282 32449360 33139404=20
            34119441 34289327=20

=3D =3D =3D
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