Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0276
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 12 2023 03:52:33

ACUS11 KWNS 120352
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120351=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-120545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0276
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma to southern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 65...

Valid 120351Z - 120545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 65
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across southwest to
south-central Arkansas as a developing MCS moves to the
east/southeast.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized convective band continues to move
to the east/southeast from southeast OK into southwest AR. A few
embedded supercells continue to be tracked on the southwest portion
of the line, but velocity data from KSRX and KLZK suggests gradual
cold pool amalgamation is taking place with a more consolidated
outflow noted south/southwest of the Hot Springs, AR area. Severe
hail will continue to be a threat with this convection, but this
trend suggests that damaging to severe wind gusts may become a more
prominent concern over the next few hours despite the shallow
frontal inversion in place over southern AR. Additionally, some
intensification along the southwestern flank of the ongoing
convection is possible as the complex moves southeastward along the
frontal boundary and into a slightly more buoyant air mass
characterized by surface temperatures and dewpoints in the low to
mid 60s. Trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a
downstream watch into southeast AR.

...Moore.. 03/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5bdNZrbZ9yxzPJzwj-GAkZhm2jrM85Ww22Ss530rmgs0N13yma7DAnK5x531WUAh__qo0J1P5=
YKIbklX2oDzVWK-Zug$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   34029523 34329523 34469434 34649313 34239167 33679168
            33049206 33069286 33209364 33609443 34029523=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.