Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 12 2023 03:20:25

AWUS01 KWNH 120320
FFGMPD
CAZ000-120800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0098
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1019 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2023

Areas affected...central California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120301Z - 120800Z

Summary...Scattered storms producing heavy rainfall will likely
linger for a few more hours.  Flash flooding is possible beneath
the more persistent storms.

Discussion...Radar mosaic imagery indicates a few lingering,
slow-moving showers and thunderstorms focused on upslope regions
of the Sierra this afternoon.  The storms are in an environment
characterized by limited surface-based instability (around 500
J/kg) and strengthening, westerly deep-layer flow with height,
allowing for modest organization and persistence despite loss of
daytime heating.  Continued upslope flow (due to westerly wind
fields) is also helping to maintain updrafts.  MRMS data suggests
a few spots of 1 inch/hr rainfall rates with this activity, which
was exceeding local FFG thresholds. Additionally, the heavy
rainfall was occurring in areas that received extensive rainfall
and snowmelt over the past two days, which led to extreme runoff
and widespread significant impacts.

Indications are that these slow-moving, heavy rainfall-producing
storms will persist for a few more hours - perhaps through 07-08Z
or so as indicated by the HRRR/HREF and other CAMs.  Given the
sensitive hydrological situation in several parts of the
discussion area, additional heavy rainfall could cause or even
exacerbate ongoing flood/flash flood issues across the discussion
area.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!91eINPPLX18ge4EaBaLcFm4S5sLDpOA-1RfkQluOxyJadYdAywfL2fxW_BAWVDrGOplp=
YbjRozMj2FMTQCXBwcr0a-k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...REV...STO...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39172140 39072041 37921914 36851811 36021785=20
            35551821 35741883 36751967 37802066 38262119=20
            38772185=20

=3D =3D =3D
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