Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0275
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 12 2023 03:41:06

ACUS11 KWNS 120240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120240=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-120445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0275
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0840 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Arkansas to northern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 120240Z - 120445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered convection developing within a warm advection
regime may pose a severe hail/wind threat through the late evening
hours. However, this threat is expected to remain fairly isolated
and a near-term watch issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics and GOES IR imagery show gradual
intensification of convective cells across southeast AR into
northern MS and southwest TN over the past hour within a weakly
capped warm advection regime. Surface temperatures in the 50s,
strong low-level veering observed in regional VWPs, and latest RAP
forecast soundings all suggest that this activity is largely
elevated with parcels originating from the 925-850 mb level.
However, MUCAPE values on the order of 1500 J/kg and 40-50 knots of
effective bulk shear are favorable for cell intensification and
organization. The large number of convective cells with minimal
storm spacing and storm motions along the zone of initiation will
favor storm interactions and upscale growth through the late evening
that should limit the overall threat, but a couple of stronger cells
with supercell characteristics may pose a severe hail/wind risk
across northern MS and adjacent areas of southeast AR/southwest TN.
Watch issuance for this activity is not anticipated at this time,
but a watch may be needed later tonight for portions of southeast AR
and northwest MS downstream of a developing MCS (currently over
southeast OK/southwest AR). This potential will be addressed in
subsequent MCDs.

...Moore/Goss.. 03/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8LwQl6azWzINQHgiL68OEoQVXIxkwCHv9ni9Jx1EGW0keivLuGvcuMr37viKbDyyGY7T_V6qL=
3868-geYcY9Zn50S-Q$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34309145 34899044 35178944 35078851 34778816 34338816
            33998843 33718917 33538988 33479075 33459110 33599146
            33989165 34309145=20


=3D =3D =3D
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