Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Mar 12 2023 00:51:03 ACUS01 KWNS 120050 SWODY1 SPC AC 120049 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2023 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, capable of large to very large hail, will remain possible this evening and overnight across eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and northern Mississippi. A few strong storms will linger in the central valley region of California early this evening. ....01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough has advanced into MO/northeast OK early this evening which has encouraged the associated surface low to drop to near the Red River, south of ADM. Despite surface temperatures warming into the mid 80s to near 90F west of the dryline, convection struggled to develop late this afternoon. However, over the last hour or so, several attempts at sustained convection have been noted immediately ahead of the cold front over OK. One such storm is maturing near ADH and this activity will likely begin to grow upscale as it tracks east-southeast along/north of the warm front, currently draped across southeast OK/southern AR. 00z sounding from SHV exhibited 2500 J/kg SBCAPE with a notable cap near 2km. Thus, most updrafts this evening will likely be elevated, though near-surface-based updrafts are possible along the warm front. Supercells may generate very large hail as lapse rates are steep and ample buoyancy currently exists along this boundary. Across the central valley region of CA, cold mid-level temperatures are contributing to modest buoyancy where surface dew points are holding in the mid 50s. Isolated strong/severe storms developed within this environment as surface temperatures warmed into the upper 60s/near 70F. Latest radar imagery suggests storms may concentrate across the eastern valley/west slopes of the Sierra Nevada for the next few hours before nocturnal cooling contributes to weakening updrafts. Until then, the most likely threat is marginally severe hail. ...Darrow.. 03/12/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .