Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0273 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Mar 11 2023 23:08:34 ACUS11 KWNS 112308 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112307=20 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-120100- Mesoscale Discussion 0273 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0507 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2023 Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma...far northeastern Texas...and into central and southern Arkansas and adjacent/far northern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20 Valid 112307Z - 120100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Risk for severe weather -- mainly in the form of hail but also to potentially include locally damaging wind gusts and possibly a tornado or two -- is forecast to steadily increase over the next few hours. WW issuance appears likely in the next hour. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front advancing southeastward across Oklahoma and western North Texas, impinging on a roughly west-to-east warm front extending across southeastern Oklahoma and into southern Arkansas. The airmass south of the warm front remains capped, while ascent near the cold front/warm front intersection has allowed a cap breach to occur -- in the form of a small thunderstorm just now initiating in Pittsburg County OK near MLC. This cell is evolving near where the most recent HRRR runs have indicated initial supercell development -- thus adding confidence with respect to convective evolution depicted by this model. As such, it appears that a couple of additional storms will develop across southeastern Oklahoma, which should then grow gradually upscale into a cluster/MCS. While much of the convection should remain slightly elevated, to the cool side of the warm front, there is some potential that a storm or two could move along -- or just north of -- the boundary, potentially posing some tornado/damaging wind risk. Otherwise, the primary severe-weather threat should remain hail, with storms evolving north of the surface warm front.=20 Given that initial storm development appears to be commencing, WW issuance within the next half hour to hour will likely be required. ...Goss/Hart.. 03/11/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7aFpuR8-l45m3oN5Vz-3ApB3YNhDcJKGFBoR2Jsc1180eN5bPGSHfWT9pjP5u3S_sGrsjqvh_= vNYaWS-kWWcCFIR3Kg$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34149678 34679696 34849635 35119556 34879260 34559117 33469130 33029235 32859302 34149678=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .