Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0272
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 11 2023 20:51:02

ACUS11 KWNS 112050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112050=20
CAZ000-112245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0272
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2023

Areas affected...California Central Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 112050Z - 112245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe storms will be possible mainly
during the mid-late afternoon, with a risk for hail, strong winds
and perhaps a brief tornado. A watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Rapid clearing of low clouds has occurred across much
of the Sacramento/San Joaquin Valley region as of 2045z, with
diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (upper 50s/low 60s surface
dew points) contributing to deepening cumulus clouds and isolated
showers/thunderstorms. Additional heating should result in MLCAPE of
500 to locally 750 J/kg by late afternoon and negligible CINH.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within this uncapped
environment during the mid/late afternoon, with strong westerly
mid/upper-level flow supporting a couple stronger storms exhibiting
supercell structures. A risk for hail/strong gusts will exist with
the more persistent storms, and a brief tornado will also be
possible where low-level CAPE/subsequent stretching can be
maximized.

The overall risk is expected to remain isolated, and a watch is not
expected.

...Bunting/Smith.. 03/11/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-X9NCHIe11a8WUcWH_jDWTvdYEVS90Ub1kBrULJ1_HIh0WJEONV9_UD5cZoVtsSA2X9jIdPCH=
bLZKHSVUVSSR_PFYBU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...

LAT...LON   36382003 36922078 37722119 38092140 38452149 38782144
            38862131 38852113 38732093 38362055 38222019 37881986
            37511937 37091913 36631922 36311959 36382003=20


=3D =3D =3D
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