Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 11 2023 08:26:30

ACUS03 KWNS 110826
SWODY3
SPC AC 110825

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2023

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of
the Florida Peninsula on Monday. Hail and damaging winds should be
the main threats.

....Florida Peninsula...
A large-scale upper trough will advance eastward from the MS Valley
over the eastern CONUS on Monday. The southern portion of this
trough, with strong mid-level west-southwesterly flow, will be
present over much of the Southeast through the day, including parts
of FL. At the surface, a cold front will continue to advance
southward over FL through the period. Isolated convection may be
ongoing at the start of the period Monday morning along/near the
cold front.

Strong mid-level westerly winds along the base of the upper trough
should be present over much of north/central FL. This enhanced flow
should foster updraft organization with any thunderstorm that can be
sustained along or just ahead of the front. Weak to moderate
instability should develop Monday afternoon as diurnal heating
occurs, with generally 60s surface dewpoints across the warm sector.

Although low-level convergence along the front appears fairly weak,
most guidance shows a convective precipitation signal across parts
of the FL Peninsula through the day. Assuming thunderstorms form,
they will have the potential to produce isolated severe hail and
damaging winds as they move east-southeastward through Monday
evening. Uncertainty regarding overall thunderstorm coverage
precludes greater severe probabilities at this time.

...Gleason.. 03/11/2023

$$

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