Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Mar 11 2023 07:01:57 ACUS02 KWNS 110701 SWODY2 SPC AC 110700 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Sat Mar 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes should occur Sunday across parts of the Southeast. Some of the hail could be very large (2+ inches). ....Southeast... Aided by low-level warm advection and ascent associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough, a loosely organized convective cluster should be ongoing Sunday morning across parts of the Southeast. Most guidance suggests this activity will weaken through the morning hours as it spreads east-southeastward. Still, an isolated hail/wind threat may continue with these thunderstorms Sunday morning, as both instability and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for updraft organization. Convective evolution Sunday afternoon in the wake of this morning activity remains somewhat unclear. A weak surface low is forecast to develop northeastward across the TN Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a secondary low may shift eastward along the cold front from northern AL into GA by Sunday evening. A warm front will also attempt to lift northward across southern/central GA through the afternoon. The airmass along/south of these fronts will be characterized by generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints. Upper 60s dewpoints may advance inland across coastal MS/AL and the FL Panhandle. Even with cloud debris and remnant precipitation from the morning activity, destabilization should occur along/south of the front as diurnal heating occurs. Seasonably cool mid-level temperatures and somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates will also aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by peak afternoon heating. Weaker instability will probably be noted with eastward extent into central/southern GA and north FL, where low-level moisture return will be less robust. Enhanced mid-level westerly flow attendant to a southern-stream jet will easily foster 40-50+ kt of effective bulk shear across the warm sector. A few supercells posing a threat for large hail and damaging winds appear likely to develop by Sunday afternoon from parts of MS into central/southern AL, eventually spreading into the FL Panhandle and central/southern GA by Sunday evening. Isolated very large hail (2+ inches) appears possible where instability is forecast to be greatest, mainly across parts of southern MS/AL into the western FL Panhandle. Convection will probably congeal into one or more bowing segments with time as it spreads eastward across GA and far north FL, while posing a greater risk for damaging winds. The threat for a couple tornadoes is also apparent Sunday afternoon, even though there will be some veering of the low-level flow to west-southwesterly with time. This tornado threat will probably be maximized with initial supercell development. ...Gleason.. 03/11/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .