Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 10 2023 20:28:26

ACUS01 KWNS 102028
SWODY1
SPC AC 102026

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2023

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms remain possible across parts of southern
Georgia, southeast Alabama into northern Florida this afternoon.
Locally strong winds and hail will be possible with some of these
storms.

Little change was made to the previous outlook except to remove risk
area behind the front. A few reports of hail or strong gusts remain
likely from northern FL into southern GA.

...Jewell.. 03/10/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2023/

....Synopsis...
Late morning satellite imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough
amplifying over the upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes.  A
surface low over the OH/PA corridor this afternoon will weaken as
the primary cyclone develops east of the Mid-Atlantic coast after
dark.  A cold front trailing southward through the southern
Appalachians into the northeast Gulf Coast will push through the
Southeast and much of FL through Saturday morning.

A cluster of elevated thunderstorms ongoing late this morning will
continue to move east near and north of an earlier outflow boundary
draped from west to east across southern GA.  The airmass south of
the boundary in the warm sector is destabilizing with surface
dewpoints rising into the low-mid 60s across north FL and southern
GA as low-level moisture advects northeast.  Strong westerly
mid-level flow will support some storm organization potential as
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE develops by early afternoon across southern GA
into the eastern FL Panhandle/north FL vicinity.  Expecting
additional storms to develop near the front as it pushes through
adjacent parts of AL/GA/FL by early-mid afternoon.  The lack of
stronger large-scale forcing for ascent may limit the overall
coverage/intensity of the storms this afternoon.  Nonetheless, a few
of the stronger storms may pose an isolated risk for large
hail/damaging gusts before this activity weakens after sunset and
moves east of the coast.

$$

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