Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0264
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 10 2023 17:27:54

ACUS11 KWNS 101727
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101727=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-102000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0264
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2023

Areas affected...southern Georgia...northern Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 101727Z - 102000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development probably will continue to
increase across the Georgia/Florida state border vicinity through
3-4 PM EST, accompanied by some risk for severe hail and locally
strong wind gusts.  Due to the marginal and relatively short-lived
nature of the severe weather threat, a severe weather watch is not
anticipated, but trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...A convectively reinforced surface front across southern
Georgia (spreading through the Savannah and Albany vicinities at
17Z), and surface cold front trailing to the west-southwest, appear
likely to advance into and across the Georgia/Florida border
vicinity through 20-21Z.  As this occurs, deeper boundary-layer
moisture (characterized by CAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg), still
generally centered over the Florida Panhandle vicinity, will tend to
advect eastward across the remainder of northern Florida.  This
destabilization, coupled with the frontal forcing and perhaps weak
mid-level cooling, may support a corridor of intensifying
thunderstorm development, in the presence of strong, generally
unidirectional deep-layer shear.

At least attempts at sustained, discrete thunderstorm development
are already underway across the Panhandle, particularly near the
state border vicinity to the north of Tallahassee.  It is possible
that one or two of these storms could intensify further and pose a
risk for producing marginally severe hail.  Otherwise, the forcing
near/just ahead of the frontal zone is expected to provide the
primary focus for intensifying thunderstorms.  These may initially
be accompanied by a risk for marginally severe hail, then some risk
for a few strong surface gusts as activity grows upscale, before
tending to be undercut by the southward advancing front later this
afternoon.

...Kerr/Smith.. 03/10/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-knPq3YrO9cDX-nCUnki4_tdjSgQxWD_PgqPZZm7d26UVIfkbkz3KE9IwZchbW9WmRLiL6dNh=
JOCHYu7lJoUt1fXkTA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   31068552 31198443 31268361 31348252 31118147 30208132
            30218391 30228501 30568577 31068552=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.