Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Mar 10 2023 17:18:51 ACUS02 KWNS 101718 SWODY2 SPC AC 101717 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA ACROSS ARKANSAS AND INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms producing primarily large damaging hail will be possible Saturday evening and overnight mainly from eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and northern Mississippi. ....Synopsis... Height falls will occur across the Plains in response to an upper low over the northern Plains and a low-amplitude wave nosing into the southern Plains. Substantial cooling aloft will occur over the region, including the Ozarks and Arklatex region and toward the MS Valley late. At the surface, low pressure will develop into western OK and move toward the Red River as a cold front moves in from the north. A dryline will push east past I-35 in OK and TX during the afternoon as a warm front moves rapidly north across LA and into AR and eastern OK by 00Z. ....Eastern OK into AR and northern MS... Most of the day will be free of thunderstorms across the area as the air mass recovers with the passage of the warm front, and heating occurs just southwest of the area. Lift will increase substantially during the evening as the cooling aloft overspreads the area. Gradual deepening of the moist boundary layer will then lead to an eruption of thunderstorms centered over AR and possibly into eastern OK initially, and these will move rapidly east/southeastward toward northern MS overnight. Forecast soundings show large values of elevated instability and steep lapse rates, in addition to effective deep-layer shear in excess of 50 kt. The increasing speed shear with height will favor fast-moving, forward-tilted supercells which may produce damaging hail, some over 2" in diameter. Given the expectation of a few long-lived storms, damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as well with the hail-laden, cold downdrafts and despite a stable surface layer. .....Northeast TX into southern OK... A conditional risk of isolated supercells will exist along the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening as a heating erodes capping in a narrow zone from near or just east of I-35 from central OK into north TX. Overall, models indicate only low probabilities of thunderstorms, and this is likely due to the strongly veered 850 mb winds and subsequent drying of the low levels just above the surface. Most of the lift will be focused farther east near the warm front, but will maintain low severe probabilities for this conditional risk. ...Jewell.. 03/10/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .