Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 10 2023 16:28:56

ACUS01 KWNS 101628
SWODY1
SPC AC 101627

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2023

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH
FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA WESTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop and intensify across parts of
southern Georgia, southeast Alabama into northern Florida this
afternoon. Locally strong winds and hail will be possible with some
of these storms.

....Synopsis...
Late morning satellite imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough
amplifying over the upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes.  A
surface low over the OH/PA corridor this afternoon will weaken as
the primary cyclone develops east of the Mid-Atlantic coast after
dark.  A cold front trailing southward through the southern
Appalachians into the northeast Gulf Coast will push through the
Southeast and much of FL through Saturday morning.

A cluster of elevated thunderstorms ongoing late this morning will
continue to move east near and north of an earlier outflow boundary
draped from west to east across southern GA.  The airmass south of
the boundary in the warm sector is destabilizing with surface
dewpoints rising into the low-mid 60s across north FL and southern
GA as low-level moisture advects northeast.  Strong westerly
mid-level flow will support some storm organization potential as
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE develops by early afternoon across southern GA
into the eastern FL Panhandle/north FL vicinity.  Expecting
additional storms to develop near the front as it pushes through
adjacent parts of AL/GA/FL by early-mid afternoon.  The lack of
stronger large-scale forcing for ascent may limit the overall
coverage/intensity of the storms this afternoon.  Nonetheless, a few
of the stronger storms may pose an isolated risk for large
hail/damaging gusts before this activity weakens after sunset and
moves east of the coast.

...Smith/Squitieri.. 03/10/2023

$$

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