Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 10 2023 12:58:53

ACUS01 KWNS 101258
SWODY1
SPC AC 101257

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2023

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop and intensify across parts of
southern Georgia, southeast Alabama into northern Florida this
afternoon. Locally strong winds and hail will be possible with some
of these storms.

....Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida...
A subtle/low-amplitude disturbance over the Deep South will
influence convection to the south of a more prominent upper trough
over the Great Lakes. Scattered ongoing elevated
showers/thunderstorms across central Alabama into
south-central/east-central Georgia early today will influence the
northern extent of destabilization as a north-northeastward flux of
low-level moisture otherwise occurs ahead of a southeast-moving cold
front.

To the south of the aforementioned convection, steady low-level
moistening and cloud breaks should be conducive for upwards of
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon across far southeast Alabama,
southern Georgia, and almost all of northern Florida. This should
allow for storms to gradually intensify and become surface-based as
they spread east-southeastward across southern Georgia, along with
additional regional development near the cold front later this
afternoon.

Sufficient instability coincident with strong mid/high-level winds
(40+ kt effective shear) will support the potential for some
semi-organized stronger storms this afternoon, including the
possibility of localized wind damage and some hail.

...Guyer/Broyles.. 03/10/2023

$$

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