Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 10 2023 09:34:49

ACUS48 KWNS 100934
SWOD48
SPC AC 100933

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2023

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

....DISCUSSION...
As an upper trough encompasses much of the eastern CONUS, a surface
cold front is forecast to move southward across FL on Day 4/Monday.
While isolated strong convection appears possible through the day
along/ahead of the front, deep-layer shear should quickly decrease
with southward extent over the FL Peninsula. Accordingly, any severe
threat should remain rather marginal. After this front clears the
coast, severe potential is expected to be negligible across the
CONUS on both Day 5/Tuesday and Day 6/Wednesday owing to a lack of
appreciable low-level moisture and related instability.

Although details remain uncertain, most guidance suggests that
another large-scale upper trough should move eastward across the
western/central CONUS during the middle to latter portion of next
week. At this point, low-level moisture return ahead of this feature
appears rather limited. While an isolated severe risk may ultimately
evolve from Day 7/Thursday into Day 8/Friday across some part of the
southern Plains into the lower MS Valley/Southeast, predictability
remains far too low to include any 15% severe probabilities at this
extended time frame.

...Gleason.. 03/10/2023

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