Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 10 2023 08:29:21

ACUS03 KWNS 100829
SWODY3
SPC AC 100828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2023

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both large hail
and damaging winds should occur Sunday across parts of the
Southeast.

....Southeast...
As an upper trough/low pivots over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
Sunday, a mid-level southern-stream disturbance should likewise
shift quickly eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast. A
weak surface low associated with this feature initially located over
the Mid-South should develop east-southeastward over the central
Gulf Coast states by Sunday evening. Surface dewpoints generally
into the low to mid 60s are forecast to be present along/south of a
front across this region.

Although there may be some clouds/precipitation present Sunday
morning over northern MS/AL and vicinity, most guidance indicates
that at least some filtered diurnal heating will occur farther south
into central/southern MS/AL/GA. Modestly steepened mid-level lapse
rates and seasonably cool temperatures aloft should also support the
development of weak to moderate instability along/south of the front
by Sunday afternoon.

Various NAM/GFS forecast soundings across this region show generally
westerly winds in the boundary layer quickly strengthening with
height through mid/upper levels. 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear will
easily support organized thunderstorms, including the potential for
supercells. Both large hail and damaging winds may occur with these
robust thunderstorms as they develop and spread east-southeastward
Sunday afternoon/evening.

Even with low-level flow mostly veered to westerly, a brief tornado
or two may also occur. This convection should eventually encounter
less instability into GA/SC and north FL, but at least an isolated
threat for strong/damaging winds may persist Sunday evening/night
across these areas given the presence of enhanced low-level flow.

...Gleason.. 03/10/2023

$$

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