Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 10 2023 05:58:22

ACUS01 KWNS 100558
SWODY1
SPC AC 100556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CST Thu Mar 09 2023

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA...

....SUMMARY...
A band of storms forecast to move across parts of southern Georgia,
adjacent southeastern Alabama and into northern Florida Friday
afternoon may produce locally strong wind gusts, while a few
stronger cells may also prove capable of producing marginally severe
hail.

....Synopsis...
Relatively low-amplitude flow aloft will largely prevail across the
U.S. through the period, though some intensification of a trough
crossing the eastern U.S. is expected with time.

As this trough modestly strengthens, an accompanying surface low is
forecast to cross the upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians region,
before redeveloping offshore over the Gulf Stream overnight.

Meanwhile, a cold front associated with this low is forecast to
shift southeastward across the southeastern U.S., and will be
accompanied by showers and thunderstorms through much of the period,
before weakening across Florida late.

....Southeastern Alabama/southern Georgia into northern Florida...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of
the period from the Carolinas to East Texas, moving southeastward
with time in conjunction with the advance of the surface cold front.
 While the storms are expected to be elevated above a stable
boundary layer early in the period, some heating/surface-based
destabilization is progged across parts of southern Alabama, and
into southern Georgia and northern Florida ahead of the convection.
This should permit storms to become surface-based, as they shift
southward into the early evening hours before weakening.

In the meantime, weakly veering but increasing wind speeds with
height will result in shear profiles sufficient for organized
storms.  While degree of surface-based CAPE may remain limited, a
few stronger storms appear likely.  As such, attendant risk for
strong wind gusts locally, and potential for marginally severe hail,
will likely evolve.  Instability concerns preclude slight risk
addition at this time.

...Goss/Supinie.. 03/10/2023

$$

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