Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0263
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 09 2023 23:16:18

ACUS11 KWNS 092316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092315=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-100045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0263
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0515 PM CST Thu Mar 09 2023

Areas affected...Parts of northeast TX...far southeast OK...far
southwest AR...and far northwest LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 092315Z - 100045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Convection is ongoing near the surface stationary front
south of the Dallas-Fort Worth area, which may produce some
marginally-severe hail and a few damaging gusts. A watch is not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A small line of convection has developed near a surface
stationary boundary draped across north central and northeast Texas
this afternoon. South of the boundary, temperatures have warmed to
near 80F with dewpoints in the low-mid 60s. Per mesoanalysis and a
modified ACARS profile from KDAL, this results in MLCAPE near 1200
J/kg. Hodographs are largely straight, with effective bulk shear
near 40 kts and relatively weak low-level flow.

Expect a few marginally severe hail reports given the straight
hodographs and modest deep-layer shear. There may be a few damaging
gust reports as well, but the relatively moist environment and
relatively weak low-level flow may limit the damaging gust
potential. Expect convection to continue and move to the
east-northeast along the boundary as the evening continues. A
weather watch is not anticipated, but trends will be monitored.

...Supinie/Hart.. 03/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6S8WcT_8hX3fwxdBnvi8X7zfPVMyAyd1vUGywLWbOxMabKxkPSaiWvaMOWN5HqBHwef6nwoZB=
beCH6wo4y4PdKEpVls$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON   31449767 31869824 32169831 32709795 33119726 33339687
            33609629 33879565 34069515 34199473 34099427 33909384
            33609355 33269343 32759354 32399381 32089454 31719600
            31449693 31449767=20


=3D =3D =3D
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