Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Mar 09 2023 16:32:19 ACUS01 KWNS 091632 SWODY1 SPC AC 091630 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Mar 09 2023 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF CENTRAL TO EAST TX INTO WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST AL... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through tonight from portions of central/east Texas to western Alabama. ....Central/east TX to western AL... Primary shortwave trough ejecting from the central Great Plains to the southern Great Lakes will yield a largely zonal regime across the southern states with minor mid-level perturbations embedded within the flow. A persistent baroclinic zone from TX to AL will strengthen by late afternoon as differential heating is underway with surface temperatures expected to rise into the 80s F across a large swath of the warm sector. Weak to moderate MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg is anticipated along and south of the Edwards Plateau in TX to the AR/LA border and west-central/southwest AL. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are most likely this afternoon from southeast OK and the Ark-La-Tex to central AL, on the cool side of the surface front. With generally weak MUCAPE, and a cool/stable boundary layer in place near and northeast of the front, storms should remain elevated with small hail as the primary threat. One exception may be along a confined portion of the front in the west-central/southwest AL vicinity, where weak low-level warm theta-e advection across this portion of the front might support a supercell or two. The spatiotemporal window for this conditional potential to be realized appears limited given the weak large-scale ascent. A swath of scattered thunderstorm development is expected this evening from the AR/LA border southwest into the Edwards Plateau of TX along and behind the surface cold front, yielding south/southeast acceleration of the front tonight. While isolated damaging winds are possible immediately along the front, the main threat should be isolated severe hail given the undercutting nature of the boundary. The greatest potential for supercells with mid-level rotation should be across the southwest portion of the outlook area in south-central TX. Here, steeper mid-level lapse rates and ample speed shear within the cloud-bearing layer could result in large hail tonight. ...Grams/Flournoy.. 03/09/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .