Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 09 2023 08:48:13

ACUS48 KWNS 090848
SWOD48
SPC AC 090846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 AM CST Thu Mar 09 2023

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

....DISCUSSION...
For Sunday/D4, run-to-run consistency of the ECMWF has been
relatively good, and a small 15% severe area centered over MS has
been added. Gradual height falls will persist throughout the day as
a southern-stream disturbance moves across the lower MS Valley. Low
pressure is forecast to move from the Arklatex into AL through 00Z,
with substantial boundary-layer moisture in place ahead of a cold
front. In addition, forecast soundings show 7.0 C/km midlevel lapse
rates, which when combined with long hodographs will favor a few
supercells capable of large hail or a few small bows producing
damaging gusts. Substantial precipitation from MS into AL will
likely limit destabilization beyond those areas.

By Monday/D5, the low and cold front will be near the East Coast,
with high pressure building in from the northwest. The remainder of
the outlook period will be relatively cool and stable over much of
the CONUS due to high pressure and a large eastern trough. Another
western trough may amplify around Thursday/D8, but predictability
for this is quite low.

...Jewell.. 03/09/2023

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